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Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Explosive Consequences of Turkey Downing Russian Su-24 Jet in Syria – Complete Analysis and Predictions!

Explosive Consequences of Turkey Downing Russian Su-24 Jet in Syria – Complete Analysis and Predictions!


Putin’s video announcement: Turkey, who is aiding terrorists, has stabbed us in the back Rus/Eng. Link

MAP: Russian Su-24 crash scheme by Russian defense ministry:
Russian Defense Ministry demonstrates map of the Su-24M flight which ended in downing by Turkish F-16 jet. Russian MoD insists the jet didn’t violate Turkish airspace, while Ankara says the plane crossed into its territory for 17 seconds, leaked document indicates.
US-backed states have right to self defence, but not others- State Dept.
During the moment of Turkey shooting down the Russian Su-24, it flew at the 6km altitude, one kilometer away from Turkish border on the Syrian side. The plane was shot down by AMERICAN missiles from American-made F-16 employed by TURKISH army, in retaliation for Russia successfully bombing Syrian terrorists, whom they call ‘Turkmen,’ and who are financed, trained and openly supported by Turkey.
In the area in which the plane was shot down there is no peaceful population. It is the territory fully controlled by various armed thugs, fed by Turkey to create havoc on Syrian territory.
It has been known that Turkey actively recruits terrorists in the former Soviet republics of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, as well as in the Russian Chechnya and Dagestan, through a wide network of mosques and extremist Islamist schools they openly organize and finance. The exception are Chechnya and Dagestan on the Russian side, where recruitment is done more subtly.
As was seen on many videos, the plane crashed very quickly. Both pilots ejected. It was also visible on videos how Turkey-supported terrorists were shelling the pilots as they tried to land.
The info about the pilots is conflicting. There was a speculation that they may have been taken hostage. However, the latest sad news I’ve heard is that either one or both pilots are unfortunately dead. One of them may still be alive, being a hostage in the hands of the militants.
Let me begin by expressing my deepest condolences to Russia on the downing of the jet, and full support to the families of pilots.
You know how balanced and restrained I usually am in my message. You know that I always try to give the benefit of the doubt to everyone, including Turkey/Erdogan and US/Obama. But this is literally the line they should have never, ever crossed. This bodes big changes with very serious multi-level and multi-directional consequences for many parties worldwide. These changes will be complex and I will discuss them below.
First, let me say that Erdogan and Turkey will have hell to pay. This was a big mistake on Erdogan’s part. Russia put up with him despite his schizophrenic idiocy, for fear of destabilizing the region even further.
As we have discussed on many prior occasions, Russia as the Earth’s Great Balancer, always strives to maintain balance and status quo, until she is pushed too far.
USA/UK and the West play the opposite role – they (especially the Anglo-American countries) play the role of the global agitator and imbalancer. This is what they do to the rest of the world, while keeping their own countries in wonderful balance.
One of my readers asked me recently a question about millions of the Middle Eastern refugees streaming into Europe, among whom there are sleeper terrorists. What to expect, where is all this going, will Europe and this reader’s native Sweden become Muslim?
I’ve replied that the sooner EU understands that the only solution to this crisis, as well as all the crises that are happening in Europe now, is in getting closer to Russia and distancing itself from the US, the sooner the refugee crisis will stop. US had feared that EU, and especially Germany, were getting too close to Russia and this is why Ukraine coup was engineered, MH17 was blown up in eastern Ukraine and anti-Russian sanctions were organized. Divide and conquer.
Keeping Europe artificially away from Russia, keeping it in fear and distrust – that’s the ultimate goal. This way they can continue to control Europe and prevent Russia and China from developing; this is how the world is kept in the perma-instability mode.
Incidentally, here is the blow away part of the intel I was saving for the upcoming piece about the Russian Airbus A321 catastrophe in Sinai, Egypt. But it seems more appropriate here. It is known that it was Turkey that organized the refugee crisis for the EU. It is also known that the USA was the mastermind of the refugee crisis. The whole thing was very well coordinated, down to maps, money, logistics and text messages which way to go and where to meet. I have proof and I will share it in a different piece.
So, to the question how to solve the refugee crisis: look at who benefits and who organised it. Then side with the only country that actually works to solve this crisis. This country would be Russia, for those who haven’t heard.
Instead, the likes of Merkel are making deals with the devil. She recently met with Erdogan and offered him a bribe to stop the flow of refugees: 3 bln euro to keep refugees in Turkey, plus a fast track into the EU (between us – this will never happen).
Below I will talk about USA and its unseemly role in the downing of the Russian Su-24 jet in Syria. You know I usually don’t talk about Obama, but this is one exception. Obama’s despicable role in this matter deserves a special mention.
I previously wrote about Erdogan trying to sit on multiple chairs at once. See ESR5: SYRIA GAME CHANGER, where I explain Turkey/Erdogan’s game in detail. But this never works.
Putin at G20 in Turkey that just ended has presented a list of 40 countries, including G20 members, who are supporting terrorism. Certainly Turkey is very high on that list, but the diplomatic Putin has stopped short of accusing country’s leadership directly.
At the same time, Turkey is a very significant trade partner for Russia. Russia exports a lot of natural gas to Turkey, a lot of agricultural produce is imported by Russia from Turkey. Several million tourists from Russia go to Turkey for warm sea vacations annually. Russia and Turkey have visa free regime. Turkey was also projected to become a major gas distribution hub for southern Europe, if and when Turkish Stream is to be built.
Incidentally, Turkish Stream up till now was still a reality, contrary to what some have been saying. It is a real project and many parties, including Turkey, Russia, Italy, Greece, all of the Balkans, Hungary and Austia are eagerly awaiting it.
It stands to reason that the following parties would do anything to prevent Turkish Stream from happening, and these are: USA, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. USA and the other two have been working tirelessly to sabotage this project. The downing of the Russian jet is creating conditions for them to achieve their goal, if only temporarily: Turkish Stream may be conserved – at this time I don’t see it being abandoned altogether yet. The delay in building it is definitely in the cards.
Now, I want to emphasize that sabotaging Turkish Stream is one of the major goals for the USA, Qatar and Saudis in Turkey. But there are lots of others.
Another goal is not letting Turkey get closer to Russia and China, while distancing itself from its NATO and Anglo-American allies.
In 2014 Putin made huge strides and it seemed this was happening, as Turkish Stream deal was signed, visa free regime began, and various other trade agreements were executed. Erdogan began talking about joining Eurasian Union.
However, after a series of attempts on his life –  which to me were rather a warning for him to toe the line than real attacks, terrorist acts, bloody protests and problems with elections, Erdogan changed his song. He began talking again about joining EU despite Turkey being snubbed for several decades. He again began being active in NATO and started taking a more and more actively militant stance against Syria and Assad.
It is evident that there has been tremendous pressure on Erdogan and Turkey to get back into the fold of NATO and Transatlantists.
At the very same time, Turkey has been playing double game with Russia. Saying friendly things to Putin’s face, Erdogan has been clandestinely recruiting Islamist militants behind Russia’s back and attempting to destabilize the post-Soviet space. The big goal and wet dream number 1 for Turkey has been the resurrection of its Ottoman Empire.
Of course Russia knew all about it – it’s pretty much common knowledge. But due to various geopolitical risks, Russians attempted to balance the situation, keeping Turkey reasonably in check.
The thing is that there really is no alternative to Erdogan that would keep the country in a semblance of a balance. Russia, with significant interests and visa-free regime, can’t afford the destabilization of Turkey.
It has to be mentioned that Kurds play a very significant and convoluted role in Turkey. On one hand, they have legitimate grievances and it is their right to want independence and being re-united with other Kurds from three other Middle Eastern countries. To remind, Kurds were artificially divided between four countries, with borders drawn by the British Empire during colonial era. Same happened to Armenians, who also became divided between several countries by the British Empire. Read all about it in SYRIA GAME CHANGER.
On another hand, it is known that in many situations Kurds are financed and controlled by the US. Exploiting their natural grievances, desire for equal rights and re-unification, USA systematically uses Kurds as a very clandestine and non-obvious weapon for US geopolitical gains in the Middle East. Therefore, Kurdish protests and riots in Turkey, manipulated since 2014 to get Erdogan back into the US/NATO fold, were helped from across the ocean.
Despite Erdogan’s idiotic and inconsistent behavior, Russia still supported him, since there was nothing else on the horizon. Russia could have easily helped Erdogan NOT win the latest elections, if they so desired. Erdogan won with great difficulty.
In view of the Russian jet’s downing and the killing of the two Russia pilots, I can predict that Erdogan will be in a more precarious situation than ever.
Big changes in Russia’s attitude towards Turkey are coming.
Russian Duma has been discussing since the Egypt crash certain security measures regarding Turkey. It has been proposed to stop air traffic to Turkey, in addition to Egypt. It was also proposed to revoke visa-free regime. This proposal didn’t pass the Duma, as most rejected such restrictions at the time. It’s almost inevitable that it will be passed now.
Egypt tourism industry is already dead after Russians withdrew all tourism. Russian tourists constituted 70%, in some case up to 90%, of Egypt’s tourism revenues. Turkey’s tourism industry is about to suffer the same fate. For both of these countries tourism is extremeley important.
Meanwhile, Russian resorts in Sochi and Crimea are getting a boost. In this regard, note the ‘co-incidence’ of Ukraine’s terrorist act, as discussed in: Urgent! Ukraine Blows Up Power Lines, Leaving Crimea and 2.5 Million People Without Electricity. This terrorist act left the peninsula without power, sabotaging the growing Crimean tourism. Russia is also developing winter tourism in Siberia and the Far East.
I foresee other severe repercussions for Turkey, of economic, financial and political nature. If and when Russia withdraws any political support from Erdogan, he will likely not survive for too long in his post. By his erratic and duplicitous actions Erdogan managed NOT to generate any real allies and suporters. Remember Qaddafi? This kind of flip-flopping doesn’t do any good.
As I said, Russia tried at all cost to keep Turkey stable, overlooking some of Erdogan’s actions. Destabilization of Turkey is beneficial only to the US – this is why by default Russia had to do the opposite.
Now the situation may change. But I will predict preliminarily that Putin will still act very carefully, so not to destabilize the region further. The political outlook for Turkey will change gradually; when Putin is ready to act – no one will see it coming.
This is still the situation when Russia will have to chose between bad and very bad so not to destabilize the region even more.
Another thing that has to be mentioned is this: Turkey and its government simply cannot be trusted under any circumstances. This has always been the way of this region of the world for a long, long time. They will flip-flop and stab anyone in the back on moment’s notice, depending on who pays them more or who threatens them more effectively.
There is a saying in those parts: if someone extends a hand to you, bite off his arm. I know it sounds vicious and awful, but in light of the present events, I thought it was necessary to mention this. 
It’s sad news for those countries that were hoping to get Russian gas first via South Stream and then via Turkish Stream. I still think the pipeline may happen one day, but it may not be through Turkey, after all.
The other variants include: it may still go through Bulgaria, but only after Bulgarian government stops being the complete US slave and the people of Bulgaria take their power back.
Or it may happen through Ukraine, but only after Ukraine is restored as a normal country. Most likely it won’t be called Ukraine for long. Also, in the near term, most likely it will either split into several pieces, or become a very, very loose confederation of practically independent, divergent regions. I’ll have more about that in the upcoming ESR: THE BATTLE FOR EURASIA.
Now, let’s talk about USA’s unseemly role in this whole situation.
I wrote in SYRIA GAME CHANGER that USA or NATO airforce under no circumstances would collide in any way with Russian airforce, for fear of world war. But we know that US is very, very peeved at Russia for Russia’s independent policy and for trying to maintain stability, when US works so incredibly hard at destabilizing the world.
What can US do to hurt Russia? US can start a hybrid war against Russia. It can employ all kinds of financial and economic attacks and sanctions, as it has been doing. It can also ignite color revolutions all over post-Soviet space. Finally, it can destroy Ukraine.
But Syria presents a great opportunity for USA to sick on Russia its vassals: the clueless Turkey is very convenient; all kinds of ‘very moderate’ terrorists US is financing – such as ISIL; Qatar and Saudis.
USA is the biggest supporter and CREATOR of terrorism in the world. USA is THE terrorist super-power of the world.
And now let’s see what Obama has said immediately after the shooting down by Turkey of the Russian Su-24 jet: ‘Turkey has the right to defend itself.’ Meanwhile the US command in Iraq says they can confirm that for 5 minutes Turkish army was warning the Russian jet to withdraw from the area, and only then they fired.
Let me get it straight: Turkish army was warning Russian jet to withdraw from the area across the border, in SYRIA, where Turkey has no right to be present or give commands, and where Russian pilots are present at the direct request and invitation of the Syrian government.
It is clear that this is an openly cynical and blatant collusion between USA and Turkey. I would not be surprised if it turns out that the ones pushing the trigger that killed Russian pilots and downed Su-24 were actually Americans, under the guise of the Turkish army. Let’s recall that USA and NATO have a lot of military bases in Turkey and this territory has always been their prised stronghold against Russia.
A word about Obama.
I said previously that I didn’t normally write about Obama is he was too predictable and un-interesting to me. This is one little exception.
Obama, this typical peace-loving ‘nobel peace prize winner,’ is one of the biggest war-mongers out there.
Obama is a puppet and a simpleton, who is a very effective mouth piece by virtue of being not very smart, but highly trainable. He’s a good actor though. He once fooled a lot of incredibly naive people by his ‘we are change’ slogan.
Having very little, if any, power from the start, after six years in office he looks like just an empty, soul-less shell. This happens to all American presidents whose daily job is to swindle the world and to lie to their own people. They are the ones who make pacts with the devil as a normal daily occurrence.
And now, a little preliminary prediction for the USA’s presidential elections 2016.
I am saving the full prediction for the US elections for early 2016, when I will do a complete prediction about USA as part on a new Earth Shift Report. But I will give you a sneak peek, which is tied to the Russian jet downing in Syria.
Here is my prediction about US elections:
AS A RESULT OF ALL THE FAILURES AND EMBARRASSMENTS OF THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION, DEMOCRATS WILL LOSE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.
Here are more predictions:
AS A RESULT OF THE ATTACK ON THE RUSSIAN JET, RUSSIA WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY HER PRESENCE IN SYRIA AND SUPPORT OF ASSAD.
RUSSIA WILL ALSO INTENSIFY ANTI-TERRORIST OPERATIONS IN CENTRAL ASIA AND CAUCASUS, AND STEP UP PROTECTION OF BORDERS OF THE POST-SOVIET SPACE, SQUEEZING USA, TURKEY AND RADICAL ISLAMIST INFLUENCES OUT OF THOSE AREAS GRADUALLY.
RUSSIA WILL ALSO INTENSIFY SUPPORT FOR THOSE ORGANIZATIONS, COUNTRIES AND FORCES THAT FIGHT ISIL, MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD AND OTHER ISLAMIST ORGANIZATIONS.
RUSSIA WILL INTENSIFY WORK DIRECTED AT SQUEEZING USA OUT OF VARIOUS COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD. US HASN’T WON ANY SUPPORTERS IN RUSSIA WITH ITS HIDEOUS ATTITUDE, AND EVEN THOSE WHO WERE STILL RELATIVELY NEUTRAL, WOULD CHANGE THEIR STANCE.
NATO WILL HIT HARD TIMES AND THE RIFT IN NATO WILL CONTINUE GROWING, ALTHOUGH USA WILL DO EVERYTHING TO KEEP NATO AFLOAT, INCLUDING INTIMIDATION. BUT USA’S ACTIONS WILL ONLY HAVE TEMPORARY EFFECT. IT’S EARLY TO TALK ABOUT THE END OF NATO, BUT IT’S THE START OF THE END.
THE SO-CALLED NATO PRINCIPLES OF MUTUAL DEFENCE ARE DEAD. NO EU COUNTRY WILL SEND THEIR TROOPS TO DEFEND TURKEY AS REQUIRED BY THE NATO CHARTER, IF RUSSIA DECIDES TO TAKE RETALIATORY MILITARY ACTION AGAINST TURKEY.
Added:
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