September
23, 2016
The
latest developments in Syria are not, I believe, the result of some deliberate
plan of the USA to help their “moderate terrorist” allies on the ground, but
they are the symptom of something even worse: the complete loss of control of
the USA over the situation in Syria and, possibly, elsewhere. Let me just
re-state what just happened:
First,
after days and days of intensive negotiations, Secretary Kerry and Foreign
Minister Lavrov finally reached a deal on a cease-fire in Syria which had the
potential to at least “freeze” the situation on the ground until the
Presidential election in the USA and a change in administration (this is now
the single most important event in the near future, therefore no plans of any
kind can extend beyond that date).
Then
the USAF, along with a few others, bombed a Syrian Army unit which was not on
the move or engaged in intense operations, but which was simply holding a key
sector of the front. The US strike was followed by a massive offensive of
the “moderate terrorists” which was barely contained by the Syrian military and
the Russian Aerospace forces. Needless to say, following such a brazen
provocation the cease-fire was dead. The Russians expressed their total
disgust and outrage at this attack and openly began saying that the Americans
were “недоговороспособны”.
What that word means is literally “not-agreement-capable” or unable to make and
then abide by an agreement.
While polite, this expression is also extremely strong as it implies not so
much a deliberate deception as the lack of the very ability to
make a deal and abide by it. For example, the Russians have often said
that the Kiev regime is “not-agreement-capable”, and that makes sense
considering that the Nazi occupied Ukraine is essentially a failed state.
But to say that a nuclear world superpower is “not-agreement-capable” is a
terrible and extreme diagnostic. It basically means that the Americans
have gone crazy and lost the very ability to make any kind of deal.
Again, a government which breaks its promises or tries to deceive but who, at
least in theory, remains capable of sticking to an agreement
would not be described as “not-agreement-capable”. That expression is
only used to describe an entity which does not even have the skillsetneeded
to negotiate and stick to an agreement in its political toolkit. This is
an absolutely devastating diagnostic.
Next
came the pathetic and absolutely unprofessional scene of US Ambassador Samantha
Powers simply walking out of a UNSC meeting when the Russian representative was
speaking. Again, the Russians were simply blown away, not by the
infantile attempt at offending, but at the total lack of diplomatic
professionalism shown the Powers. From a Russian point of view, for one
superpower to simply walk out at the very moment the other superpower is making
a crucial statement is simply irresponsible and, again, the sign that their
American counterparts have totally “lost it”.
Finally,
there came the crowning moment: the attack of the humanitarian convey in Syria
which the USA blamed, of course, on Russia. The Russians, again, could
barely believe their own eyes. First, this was such a blatant and,
frankly, Kindergarten-level attempt to show that “the Russians make mistakes
too” and that “the Russians killed the cease-fire”. Second, there was
this amazing statement of the Americans who said there are only two air forces
which could have done that – either the Russians or the Syrians (how the
Americans hoped to get away with this in an airspace thoroughly controlled by
Russian radars is beyond me!). Somehow, the Americans “forgot” to mention
that their own air force was also present in the region, along with the air
forces of many US allies. Most importantly, they forgot to mention that
that night armed US Predator drones were flying right over that convoy.
What
happened in Syria is painfully obvious: the Pentagon sabotaged the deal made
between Kerry and Lavrov and when the Pentagon was accused of being
responsible, it mounted a rather crude false flag attack and tried to blame it
on the Russians.
All
this simply goes to show that the Obama Administration is in a state of
confused agony. The White House apparently is so freaked out at the
prospects of a Trump victory in November that it has basically lost control of
its foreign policy in general and, especially, in Syria. The Russians are
quite literally right: the Obama Administration is truly
“not-agreement-capable”.
Of
course, the fact that the Americans are acting like clueless frustrated
children does not mean that Russia will reciprocate in kind. We have
already seen Lavrov go back and further negotiate with Kerry. Not because
the Russians are naive, but precisely because, unlike their US
colleagues, the Russians are professionals who know that negotiations and open
lines of communications are always, and by definition, preferable to a
walk-away, especially when dealing with a superpower. Those observers who
criticize Russia for being “weak” or “naive” simply project their own, mostly
American, “reaction set” on the Russians and fail to realize the simply truth
that Russians are not Americans, they think differently and they act
differently. For one thing, the Russians don’t care if they are perceived
as “weak” or “naive”. In fact, they would prefer to be
perceived as such if that furthers their goals and confuses the opponent about
their real intentions and capabilities. The Russians know that they did
not build the biggest country on the planet by being “weak” or “naive” and they
won’t be take lessons from a country which is younger that many Russian
buildings. The western paradigm is usually like this: a crises leads to a
breakdown in negotiations and conflict follows. The Russian paradigm is
completely different: a crisis leads to negotiations which are conducted up the
the last second before a conflict erupts. There are two reasons for that:
first, continuing to negotiate up to the last second makes it possible to seek
a way out of the confrontation up to the last second and, second, negotiations
up to the last second make it possible to come as close as possible to
achieving strategic surprise for an attack. This is exactly how Russia
acted in Crimea and in Syria – with absolutely no warning signs or, even less
so, a well-publicized display of power to attempt to intimidate somebody (intimidation
is also a western political strategy the Russians don’t use).
So
Lavrov will continue to negotiate, no matter how ridiculous and useless such
negotiations will appear. And Lavrov himself will probably never
officially utter the word “недоговороспособны”, but the message to the
Russian people and to the Syrian, Iranian and Chinese allies of Russia will be
that at this point Russia has lost any hope of dealing with the current US
Administration.
Obama
and Co. now have their hands full with trying to hide Hillary’s health and
character problems and right now they probably can think of only one thing: how
to survive the upcoming Hillary-Trump debate. The Pentagon and the
Department of State are mostly busy fighting each other over Syria, Turkey, the
Kurds and Russia. The CIA seems to be fighting itself, though this is
hard to ascertain.
It
is likely that some kind of deal with still be announced by Kerry and Lavrov,
if not today, then tomorrow or the day after. But, frankly, I completely
agree with the Russians: the American are truly “not-agreement-capable” and at
this point in time, both the conflict in Syria and the one in the Ukraine are
frozen. I don’t mean “frozen” in the sense of “no fighting”, not at all,
but I do mean “frozen” in the same of “no major developments possible”.
There will still be combats, especially now that the Wahabi and Nazi allies of
the USA feel that their boss is not in charge because he is busy with elections
and race riots, but since there is no quick military solution possible in
either one of these wars, the tactical clashes and offensives will not yield
any strategic result.
Barring
an election-canceling false flag inside the USA, like the murder of either
Hillary or Trump by a “lone gunman”, the wars in the Ukraine and Syria will go
on with no prospects of any kind of meaningful negotiations. And whether
Trump or Hillary get into the White House next, a major “reset” will take place
in early 2017. Trump will probably want to meet Putin for a major negotiations
session involving all the key outstanding issues between the USA and
Russia. If Hillary and her Neocons make it into the White House then some
kind of war between Russia and the USA will become almost impossible to
prevent.
The
Saker
PS:
some Russian military experts are saying that the kind of damage shown in the
footage of the attack on the humanitarian convey is not consistent with an
airstrike or even an artillery strike and that it looks much more like the
result of a blast of several IEDs. If so, then that would still not point
at Russia, but at the “moderate terrorist” forces in control of that
location. This could still be a US ordered-false flag attack or,
alternatively, the proof that the US has lost control over its Wahabi allies on
the ground.
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