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Friday, November 7, 2014

THE LIGHTHOUSE IN THE STORM by JC Collins


Lighthouse
Dollar and BRICS Usher in SDR Liquidity

More and more evidence and analysis is emerging every day and week in support of the Multilateral Financial System which is being structured around SDR denominated liquidity.  Like a swell beneath the surface it begins to rise and make itself known.  Readers and other analysts are beginning to discover this swell and realize that the calm before the engineered storm can be trended.  Below is the excellent analysis of someone named Macjik at The People’s Talk Radio investment forum.  Thanks to reader Dee for sharing this information and thanks to Macjik for compiling it. Macjik has broken down the composition of the foreign reserve accounts of the worlds powers.  The conclusion is that there is an extremely high probability that SDR’s make up a larger percentage of these “unallocated” foreign reserves than previously thought. Links to supporting documentation are included.  This should eliminate any remaining doubt about the BRICS inability to overthrow the international bankers.  – JC
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THE POWER OF THE DOLLAR !!!

Ok everyone this is going to be a very technically oriented post… my goal for this piece is to have a referencing point to come back to. The other aspect is that I want to see if I can quantify the POWER OF THE DOLLAR and show that China is not taking over as the Reserve Currency but rather it is being allowed to take a Pillar position to help hold the world’s safety net. China will play a key part in adding liquidity to the new platform at the same time bare some of the weight of the world. As both D&G have shared that China wants us to keep our position because without it they collapse harder and faster with their 1.4 billion people. Also note that the stats that I will share are the official data that these other writers use in their pieces to push their agenda.

RESERVE CURRENCY

In researching this subject I have the official numbers that many articles like to quote from… by which many have misrepresented the numbers to make their point rather than gain the true perspective. The document is called: Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) from the IMF.


From 1996 to 2013 US Reserve Currency grew by a factor of 5 in the world…
1996- $760,041,000,000 (Billions)
2013- $3,805,744,000,000 (Trillions)

From 2007 to 2013 US Reserves Currency grew by a factor of 1.67 in the world…
2007- $2,285,398,000,000 (Trillions)
2013- $3,805,744,000,000 (Trillions)

What is so interesting is that the dollar is not going down in the quantity of the reserves but so many quote percentages that are skewed. This is where it gets really interesting. It is true, on the surface our total percentage is going down but It is not because of the dollar leaving the market but rather the Pie of Reserves is getting bigger, much bigger.

This is where I will introduce the 2 pieces of the Pie:
Allocated Reserves: There is statistical data where we know the details of the currencies in the Reserve. List of those currencies listed are: US, Pounds, Deutsche Mark*, French Francs*, Yen, Swiss Francs, Netherlands Guilder*, ECU’s*, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, Euros, Other Currencies. (*-They are not being used in our time lines.)

Unallocated Reserves: We don’t know the statistical breakdown of the currencies in the Reserve.

ALLOCATED RESERVES: Let’s tackle those percentages

End of 2007 – Total: $4,119,319,000,000 (Trillions) US: $2,631,280,000,000 (Trillions) US%: 64% of Total Allocated Reserves.
End of 2013 – Total: $6,220,795,000,000 (Trillions) US: $3,805,744,000,000 (Trillions) US%: 61% of Total Allocated Reserves.

So, in looking at these numbers did the US dollar really drop in relevance to the world??? Are countries really leaving the dollar… the Answer is NO!!! What is very obvious though is the pie is getting bigger.

Without getting to deep into it, you will find that several of the known currencies grew a little to make the pie bigger… including the YEN, Pound, Euro, Canadian, Aussy, and Other Currencies. None of which were quantitatively significant. Percentage wise Other Currencies jumped but was only about $100 Billion. Not to mention the fact that it peaked in the 3rd quarter of 2012, then it dropped approx. $160 bill in the 4th Quarter and has been on the decline.

Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) PDF Historical Data

Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER)

UNALLOCATED RESERVES: again the reserves that are held by Central Banks that are reported without details of their composition.
This particular piece of the pie is the one that is the most interesting in my mind. Because it opens up some really interesting conversations.

From 1996 to 2013 the Unallocated reserves grew by a factor of 16 in the world

1996: $339,845,000,000 (Billions)
2013: $5,452,832,000,000 (Trillions)

From 2007 to 2013 the Unallocated reserves grew by a factor of 2.11 in the world

2007: $2,585,118,000,000 (Trillions)
2013: $5,452,832,000,000 (Trillions)

Now let’s look at the Percentage growth of the Unallocated to the Total Numbers (Allocated + Unallocated)

1996: TOTAL: $1,566,054,000,000 (Trillions) UA: $339,845,000,000 (Billions) UA%: ~22%
2007: TOTAL: $6,704,435,000,000 (Trillions) UA: $2,585,118,000,000 (Trillions) UA%: ~39%
2013: TOTAL: $11,673,628,000,000 (Trillions) UA: $5,452,832,000,000 (Trillions) UA%: ~47%

Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) PDF Historical Data


Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) Click Link to see Great Infographic

WHO HAS WHAT IN THE UNALLOCATED????

This was my next question… what details can I find about this unallocated since they have totals… they must have some idea. Because there are many that are assuming this is the growth of the Chinese Yuan… They are only partially correct on that. So, researching the IMF… I found that what doesn’t go in the COFER is tracked by the IMF’s International Financial Statistics (IFS).http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/c…g/glossary.htm


What I find very interesting is that all the numbers shared on this are in SDR’s. And for conversation sake we need to understand what are the details roughly $5.5 Trillion in unallocated reserves.

In doing some research I ran across several articles that List China, India, Russia and Saudi Arabia as countries who do provide Currency Reserve Details.

Saudia Arabi: $725 Billion in Reserves : heavy with Petro $ and store their money at the NY FED.

Russia: $434 Billion in Reserves : As of Feb had $126 billion in Treasuries (30% of their Reserves)

India: $267 Billion in Reserves : As of Feb had $67 billion in Treasuries (25% of their Reserves)

China: $3.82 Trillion in Reserves : As of Feb had $1.273 trillion in Treasuries (33% of their Reserves)

MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF TREASURY SECURITIES

Adding up these 4 countries Reserves it gives us a Total of about $5.246 Trillion (I think that is pretty close for what we need to discuss).

Let’s tackle China because the concepts can be applied to all the others and since they are the one everyone is worried about. There is one thing you have to understand that these Treasuries are no longer debt but are considered assets. If you were to rid your Central banks from them they would collapse on themselves. Everyone who has sold their Treasuries has devalued their currency (Russia the most recent one). In doing so has the dollar really depreciated … NO!!!

Now according to the US GOV document and one I found at Princeton has estimates that China’s Reserves could be has high as 60%-70% in dollar. And through different government companies they have built up strength through using the dollar and not the Yuan.

Let’s apply 60% to the total Unallocated ($5.452832 Trillion) and apply it the totals for the US:

2013: 3.805744 + $3.271699 Trillion TOTAL US %: 61% of total World Reserves. Again all this emphasizes the importance of the dollar in the world economy.

So let’s give China the 40% and the small other currencies totals on the Allocated side… in doing that China max’s out at 20% of the Global Reserves. And that was being really liberal that they would be the only other currency.

China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves and Holdings of U.S. Securities

RENOVATION OF THE GLOBAL RESERVE REGIME

SWIFT

Some statistical data shows China is growing in world transactions but is far from taking over… In looking at SWIFT DATA , the US has 81% of the World Trade Finance Currency and China is #2 at 8.66%. The US sits at 38% of World Payments Currency where China is #12 at .84%.

SWIFT (Society for the Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) acts as a Global funds transfer system for WORLD.


TREASURIES
Another observation is if you look at our foreign treasuries data from 2007 to Feb 2013 there is a very interesting trend… our treasuries are in huge demand. When most would think to get rid of their treasuries it grew by a factor of 2.77. Which correlates pretty well with the Unallocated rise which was a growth factor of 2.11.
2007: 2,123,600,000,000 (Trillion)
2014 (FEB): 5,885,300,000,000 (Trillion)

MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF TREASURY SECURITIES

I think it is also important to point out who owns our debt based on several sources but this one I like the most because of the graphic. Roughly 67% of our 17.2 Trillion debt is owned by US. So, 33% is Foreign own of which China has roughly 8%. Again China doesn’t own us! In fact 40% of our debt is held by our own federal government.
Who Holds Our Debt? Click link to see Great infographic

FINAL OBSERVATION

I can’t help but go back to a point that I made earlier that the IFS data was in SDR’s. With the conversation that we have with the role of the IMF in this new global platform… the numbers do start to also somewhat correlate with their strength and prominence. Could part of the IFS data really be telling us how far the IMF and the SDR have penetrated the global market??? That it really isn’t about China but more about the IMF??? Time will tell with this one but it is definitely something we have to put on the table. Especially now that every IMF member country holds SDR’s in their Reserves. And if the SDR’s are playing a major role in the Unallocated Reserves then that means that 42% of every SDR is weighted in Dollars.


Let’s apply 42% to the total Unallocated ($5.452832 Trillion) and apply it the totals for the US:
2013: $2.290189 + $3.805744 Trillion TOTAL US %: 52% of the Global Reserve Currency.

No matter how I look at all the statistical data there is no way to remove the $ without causing a collapse. And as long as the trend continues that when the world gets freaked… they come running to the dollar. The dollar will be here to stay for a long time.

CONCLUSION

I think it is really important that I do not down play China’s role too much here. They are growing and will someday (maybe very soon) become a reserve currency but the biggest issue always comes down to convertibility. Now that isn’t to say they are not a part of a basket of the Petro currency either. I think we could view this as a stepping stone for China to the SDR. As well as a stepping stone for the world to accept the SDR as the World Reserve someday.

I also believe it is crucial that China step up in this new Global Platform and take their place as a pillar to hold up the Global Safety Net. For me it is very obvious that this is the role they are taking by the actions they are taking with their currency, country and how they have handled Russia by supporting Ukraine and by warning Iran when they warned North Korea that they will not tolerate nuclear proliferation.

At the end of the day when the world freaks out about anything… they always coming running to the US and her allies. Why? Because for one we have the Biggest Stick and two, we are the largest economy and if we go down they all go down harder and faster. Not matter how many games countries play when you own the game itself it allows you to change the rules as you see fit.

Please be aware that the stats are very often used out of context to help make a point. This exercise is to show you that the US dollar is not declining and that the true numbers that these professionals quote are actually increasing. And note the links I shared are the official numbers that are recognized and used.

Finally, I want people to understand that the Dollar is Evolving and not Dissolving… When you put the dollar into the context of it’s role globally and with it’s role with the IMF… you start to see where the IMF is going and you realize that the Dollar is going to help usher in the SDR as the global currency. Thus keeping power where they have always wanted to keep it with the US and her Allies. You also start to think that in 1999 when they opened the financial gates on purpose, it was to cause the collapse so that the world again would rely on the US and thus forcing the changes and conformity we have seen around the world… and they did it all through ECONOMIC WARFARE!!!

Another step is to see how the FED or Treasury aligns itself with the IMF. I think it will be the FED but watch for their language and if they mirror each other you will know that US has created the bridge to the beginnings of the new centralized power. We already see how the IMF/BIS/UN/WB all help lay the foundation now for the US and it’s Friends to take advantage of a location. Africa is a Prime example right now.

Now, for me, China becomes a distraction for the population and for the PTB’s, a new pillar to help keep liquidity in the market place while this new Global Platform is installed. There will be some volatility in this change but the more you understand the less you will be caught up in that craziness.

(Please remember this was more about sharing research and thoughts that I have been working on for a bit and it is not perfect and doesn’t encompass all my thoughts and feelings. ButI hope you get a little something from this info. And may even spark 
conversation, research and even a good debate.)



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