The
Next Empire
by ALEX
CHRISTOFOROUJanuary 2, 2018, 11:
The
end of dollar hegemony, a new SWIFT system, and a new central bank,
are all contributing factors towards the rapid decline of the US empire and the
rise of The
Next Empire as explained by International
Man…
Throughout
history, political, financial, and military leaders have sought to create
empires. Westerners often think of ancient Rome as the first empire. Later,
other empires formed for a time. Spain became an empire, courtesy of its
Armada, its conquest of the New World, and the gold and silver extracted from
the West. Great Britain owned the 19th century but lost its empire due largely
to costly wars. The US took over in the 20th century and, like Rome, rose as a
republic, with minimal central control, but is now crumbling under its own
governmental weight.
Invariably,
the last people to understand the collapse of an empire are those who live
within it. As a British subject, I remember my younger years, when, even though
the British Empire was well and truly over, many of my fellow Brits were still
behaving in a pompous manner as though British “superiority” still existed. Not
so, today. (You can only pretend for so long.)
But
this does suggest that those who live within the present empire—the US—will be
the last to truly understand that the game is all but over. Americans seem to
be hopeful that the dramatic decline is a temporary setback from which they
will rebound.
Not
likely. Historically, once an empire has been shot from its perch, it’s
replaced by a rising power—one that’s more productive and more forward thinking
in every way. Yet the US is hanging on tenaciously, and
like any dying empire, its leaders are becoming increasingly ruthless, both at
home and abroad, hoping to keep up appearances.
Warfare
is often the death knell of a declining empire—both in
its extreme financial cost and in its ability to alienate the peoples of other
countries. In the new millennium, the US has invaded more countries than at any
other time in its history and appears now to be in a state of perpetual
warfare. This is being carried out both militarily and economically, as the US
imposes economic sanctions on those it seeks to conquer.
This
effort has become so threatening to the world that other major powers, even if
they do not have a history of being allies, are now coming together to counter
the US.
The
US is encouraged in its effort by an unnatural alliance between the countries
of Europe. Although Europe is made up of many small countries, often with
dramatically differing cultures, who have bickered with each other for
centuries, the European Union has cobbled them together into an ill-conceived
“United States of Europe.”
Although
the relatively new EU is already clearly stumbling and is on the verge of
fragmenting, their leaders are desperately attempting to hold the unlikely
alliance together with the help of the US. Meanwhile,
the other major powers of the world are going full steam ahead to ensure that,
when the US and EU reach their Waterloo, the rest of the world will carry on
independently of the dying empire.
They
are not merely waiting along the sidelines for the collapse to come, awaiting
their turn at the top of the pecking-order. They are actively preparing their
position to, as seamlessly as possible, take the baton at a run.
The
End of Dollar Hegemony
Since
the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, the US dollar has reigned supreme as the
world’s default currency. In 1944, the US held more gold than any other
country, but in 1971, the US went off the gold standard, and since then, the
dollar has been a fiat currency. The US has become increasingly cavalier in its
abuse of the dollar—often at the expense of other countries.
Russia
and China dealt with the latest round of strong-arm tactics by the US to adhere
to the petrodollar by creating the largest energy agreement in history. This
and all trade between the two countries will be settled in the ruble and the
yuan. Russia has since been active in creating agreements with other
fuel customers, also bypassing the petrodollar.
In
creating these agreements, the Asian powers have unofficially announced the
demise of the petrodollar. For decades, the US has applied its muscle to other
countries, using the petrodollar. So, the Sino-Russian agreement
stands, not only to end the petrodollar monopoly, but to create a decline in US
power over the world, generally.
A
New SWIFT System
Presently,
the vast majority of economic transfers in the world pass through the SWIFT
system, located in Brussels but controlled by the US. In recent years, the US
has barred, or threatened to bar, other countries from the SWIFT system,
effectively making it impossible for banks to transfer money and, by extension,
causing the collapse of their banking systems. Russia has responded by
creating its own SWIFT system.
It’s
entirely likely that, if Russian trading partners, such as Iran, are barred
from the use of the Brussels SWIFT (or even threatened to be barred), Russia
would extend the use of its SWFT to them.
The
creation of a second worldwide SWIFT would effectively remove the SWIFT threat
from the US bag of tricks as an economic weapon. As
long as Russia provides an effective money transfer service and does it without
the intimidation that the US employs, it’s predictable that other countries
would flock to the new system, in preference to SWIFT. Once other countries are
fully on board, the US would have no choice but to interface with the new
system or lose trade with those countries.
A
New Central Bank
In
recent decades, China and Russia have been expanding their economic powers
dramatically and have periodically complained that their seats at the IMF table
are unrealistically low, considering their importance to world trade. In 2014,
China officially replaced the US as the world’s largest economy, yet the IMF
has consistently sought to minimise China’s place at the table.
It
would seem that the West believes that it’s holding all the cards and that the
Chinese and other powers must accept a poor-sister position, if they are to be
allowed to sit at the IMF table at all. The West somehow does not seem to
recognise that, if frozen out, the other powers have the ability to create
alternatives. As with the SWIFT system, the Asian powers have reacted
to US overreach, not by going away licking their wounds, but by creating a
second IMF.
The
Russian State Duma (the lower house of the Russian legislature) have now
created the New Development Bank. It will have a $100 billion pool, to be used
for the BRICS countries. Its five members will contribute equally to its
funding. It will be centered in Shanghai, India will serve as the first
five-year rotating president, and the first chairman of the board of directors
will come from Brazil. The first chairman of the board of governors is
likely to be Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. It’s therefore structured
to be truly multinational.
In
creating all of the above entities, the BRICS will, in effect, have created a
complete second economic world.
In
the latter days of the British Empire, we Brits seemed to be under the illusion
that, even as our power base crumbled, we might somehow retain control by
threats and bluster. The UK was utterly wrong in this and only succeeded in
alienating trading partners, colonies, and allies by doing so.
The
same is happening again today. China, Russia, and the rest of the
world, when faced with American threats and bluster, will not simply fold their
tents and accept that the US must be obeyed. They will, instead, create
alternatives. And they are doing so exceedingly well and quickly.
At this point, the overreach of the US is not only enabling other powers to
rise, it is forcing their hand to literally create the next full-blown empire.
Editor’s
Note: It’s always been true, as Bourne said, that “war is the health of the
State.” But it’s especially true when economic times get tough. That’s because
governments like to blame their problems on outsiders; even an imagined foreign
threat tends to unify opinions around those of the leaders.
Since
economies around the world are all weakening, and political leaders are all
similar in essential mindset, there’s good reason to believe the trend toward
World War 3 is accelerating.
Unfortunately,
there’s little any individual can do to practically change the trajectory of
this trend in motion. The best you can and should do is to stay informed so
that you can protect yourself in the best way possible and even profit from the
situation.
No comments:
Post a Comment