Global Research,
April 26, 2016
Oriental
Review 25 April 2016
Region: Latin America & Caribbean
Brazil is in the
midst of a prolonged regime change operation, as documented step-by-step by
Pepe Escobar in his articles for Sputnik, RT, and
the Strategic
Culture Foundation. The author’s
intent isn’t to get into the situational specifics of each and every detail
behind the US’ techniques, but to provide a general overview of the strategies
that are at play and their contribution to Hybrid War theory.
Brazil is an
important New Cold War battleground not just because of its institutional
multipolarity, but particularly because of its role in China’s One Belt One
Road global vision. The Chinese announced last year that they plan to build
the Twin Ocean
Railroad between Brazil’s Atlantic Coast
and Peru’s Pacific one in order to facilitate transoceanic trade between the
two BRICS members by enhancing Brasilia’s transcontinental trade capability.
Because this mega project is located in the US’ own hemisphere, the “Monroe
Doctrine”-obsessed Exceptionalists accelerated their existing regime change
plans for Brazil with the intent of overthrowing its government and replacing
it with a pro-unipolar quisling.
Many observers are
scratching their heads wondering how to properly describe what they’re
witnessing in Brazil, and while there’s certainly visible evidence of a Color
Revolution, it would be inaccurate to describe it solely through
the prism of this definition. At the same token, while it’s been likened to
a Hybrid War, it
only fits the ‘conventional’ informational/economic aspects of this term, too,
and doesn’t really satisfy the regime change perquisites of a phased transition
from a Color Revolution to an Unconventional War (or at least not yet).
Similarly, while there’s definitely a ‘constitutional coup’ going on, it’s also
not entirely this form of regime change, either. Rather, there are elements of
all three strategies at play, and they interact in a unique dynamic that might
represent the unveiling of a new patterned approach that aims to subvert
leading multipolar states. What’s important to point out is that the
entire plot was set into motion as a result of valuable intelligence that the
NSA had gained about Brazil’s top company and later weaponized into a regime
change catalyst, meaning that practically every country in the world is
potentially vulnerable to this sort of asymmetrical destabilization.
The
“Anti-Corruption” Inquisition
The key vehicle in
exerting pressure on President Rousseff isn’t the Color Revolution movement,
itself an outgrowth of the “Cashmere
Revolution” and the return of which the author warned about
last summer , but the ‘constitutional coup’ attempts that are being
orchestrated to remove her from power. It’s worthwhile to remember that these
are built upon an “anti-corruption” investigation that, as Pepe Escobar has
repeatedly pointed out, are one-sided and only target the ruling party. It
was revealed in
September 2013 as part of the Snowden Leaks that the NSA had been spying on
Petrobras , the company at the heart of the ‘constitutional coup’ scandal,
which in turn raises the possibility that the US had obtained ‘compromising’
information on the alleged corruption activities of key ruling party executives
and was waiting for the right time to weaponized it.
It shouldn’t be
seen as coincidental that the “Car Wash” ‘anti-corruption’ investigation began
nearly half a year later in March 2014, which was the run-up to the 6th BRICS
Summit in Fortaleza, Brazil that summer. During that major international event,
the multipolar leaders committed themselves
to creating the alternative financial architecture that would later become
known as the BRICS/New Development Bank and officially
instituted one year later in Ufa. At the time, “Car Wash”
wasn’t big enough to derail any of this, but it also wasn’t meant to be an
immediate bombshell. Instead, it can be conceived of as a ticking time bomb
that was preplanned to go off at a future date, whether or not Rousseff would
have even remained in office by that time. The reader should remember that shebarely won reelection
that fall, and if she hadn’t, then it would have been the “opposition” that could
have been implicated or discretely blackmailed with the threat thereof.
Image: An anti-coup
rally in Brasilia, March 2016
After all, “Car
Wash” is a one-sided anti-corruption scandal that purposely neglects targeting
any opposition parties and is aimed solely at the ruling class, regardless of
whichever one they might have been. In the case of Rousseff and her Worker’s
Party, they’re targeted for regime change, whereas the Brazilian Social
Democracy Party of her 2014 election rival would have been targeted for
blackmail in order to keep it in line with American strategic precepts for the
country. One way or another, after having initiated the ‘Car Wash” inquisition,
the US was going to exploit it however it could in order to attain and then
maintain its hold on power over the Brazilian political establishment. With
Rousseff winning reelection while the investigation was still ongoing and
nowhere near ‘conclusively’ finished, it was inevitable in hindsight that it
would be used as a weapon for toppling her government and initiating a
‘constitutional coup’.
‘Constitutional
Coups’ And Color Revolutions
Once Rousseff was
implicated (most ‘convincingly’ in the court of public opinion) for her alleged
involved in “Car Wash”, the embedded pro-American regime change elements in
Brazil’s government sprang into action in initiating the ‘constitutional coup’
proceedings against her. By itself and nakedly presented as a one-sided
‘anti-corruption’ inquisition, the ‘constitutional coup’ had no semblance
whatsoever of domestic or international ‘legitimacy’, which necessitated a
dramatic move in order to ‘justify’ it. This was the role that the nascent
Color Revolution ended up playing, since without tens of thousands of people in
the street, there could be no pretense of ‘democracy being served’ by her
indictment. Instead, the US’ hand in all of this would be even more obvious
than during Latin America’s last ‘constitutional coup’ in 2012 Paraguay.
Additionally, Brazil isn’t Paraguay – it’s a leading multipolar power and a
nation many times larger than its landlocked neighbor, and carrying out a
regime change there requires more ‘finesse’ and ‘public relations’ manipulation
in Brazil than it ever would in Paraguay.
Therefore, the
Color Revolution itself is inconsequential in pressuring Rousseff’s government
or enacting any leadership concessions from her whatsoever. The entire regime
change operation against her is driven by the ‘constitutional coup’, which
itself is being disguised by the Color Revolution that has attracted the
‘normative’ attention of most of the world’s pro-unipolar media. This can be
proven by the copious media coverage given to the thousands of people who are
protesting against her and rallying around a giant
inflatable yellow duck compared to
the considerable lack of attention being given to the NSA’s role in catalyzing
the entire Petrobras ‘anti-corruption’ inquisition in the first place. Clearly,
the reason for this is that the US is engaging in a concerted effort to shift
the international dialogue over the issue from the origins of the political
crisis to the ‘normative legitimacy’ of Rousseff’s rule, strongly implying that
the Color Revolution protesters have somehow invalidated her democratic and
legitimate reelection and more than ‘normatively’ compensate for the shady
‘constitutional coup’ dealings that are being employed against her.
A Heightened Risk
Of Hybrid War
At the moment, it
looks like the ‘constitutional coup’-Color Revolution two-step might succeed in
removing Rousseff and replacing her with Vice-President Michel Temer, who had
actually been practicing his post-coup address to the nation in a recently
leaked speech. Should this happen, then there wouldn’t be any
reason whatsoever for the US to intensify its regime change operation into a
Hybrid War by prompting an Unconventional War, but it might unwittingly happen
that Rousseff’s supporters take to arms in the event that she’s overthrown. If
this transpires, then the country would definitely be thrown into a low-level
Hybrid War, albeit one in which this development uncharacteristically occurs
after the US is successful in its mission and not beforehand, which in any case
would take a course which is impossible to accurately predict at this time.
However,
considering just how beloved the left wing is to millions of destitute people
in Brazil and taking a cue from their armed comrades in
Venezuela, leftist individuals might form militias in order to protect against
any forthcoming coup. Remembering the astonishing rate of crime that already
exists inside of the country, it’s foreseeable that anti-coup
activists/insurgents could easily procure whatever weapons they might need in
order to create a destabilizing stir. Furthermore, UNASUR has hinted that
it wouldn’t
recognize Rousseff’s possible impeachment, which might
grant an added degree of normative support to any militias that agitate on her
behalf.
On the other hand,
if the regime change process isn’t proceeding apace around the time of the
Summer Olympics in Rio and something or another happens to derail it (e.g. the
Senate doesn’t vote to continue the impeachment process), then there’s a chance
that the US might encourage right-wing terrorism against the government. This
would seek to provoke an international incident that destabilizes the Brazilian
government even more than it already is, precisely at the moment when it would
need the best media coverage that it can get and when it’s most vulnerable to a
flurry of unipolar media condemnation against it. Looked at from another angle,
if the plot against Rousseff succeeds by that time, with or without the advent
of any anti-regime change rebels, then some countries might choose to boycott
the Olympics in order to show solidarity with the legitimate government that
was illegally deposed of. This wouldn’t change any facts on the ground, but it
would be a strong and symbolic statement of support that might encourage
whatever nascent armed resistance movement there might be by that time.
Concluding Thoughts
Assessing the US’
regime change strategy against Rousseff, it’s evident that the NSA’s findings
were used to spark the ‘constitutional coup’ proceedings that have been
‘normatively justified’ by the preplanned Color Revolution (a continuation of
the so-called “Cashmere Revolution” of 2014). The protests have thus far not
led to any degree of substantial pressure on the government despite their
massive size, with the only agency of tangible anti-government force coming
from the ‘legal’ inquisition that’s been launched against the Brazilian
President. Nothing at this point indicates that the government is threatened by
the street activists, although everything points to it being totally
destabilized by the “Car Wash” conspiracy against it.
While no
discernable Hybrid War traces can be found thus far (as in the author’s regime change definition of
this concept), that doesn’t preclude any from popping up in the near future,
whether led by anti-government right-wing terrorists or pro-government
post-coup insurgents. There’s no guarantee that either will happen, but the
possibility can’t be ruled out in general and must be prepared for by both
sides. No matter what ultimately happens in Brazil, the regime change
scenario currently underway there is emblematic of a new type of subversive
interplay between the NSA, ‘constitutional coup’ actors, and Color
Revolutionaries, and it might disturbingly foreshadow a coming trend of
state-wide destabilization that could soon be rolled out elsewhere against
other multipolar targets.
Andrew Korybko is
the American political commentator currently working for the Sputnik agency.
The original source
of this article is Oriental
Review
Copyright © Andrew
Korybko, Oriental
Review, 2016
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