The Planned Invasion of Syria:
Are We on the Eve of
War?
Is the US Leading Saudi Arabia Down “the Kuwaiti Invasion Road”?
Global Research, February 13, 2016
For the first time in a long time I feel concerned and
worried about the prospect of war. The reaction of Saudi Arabia to the
Russian intervention in Syria has always been the wild card in the shifting
geopolitical power base in the Middle East. Turkey and Israel, along with
Saudi Arabia are the three countries with the most to lose because of a strong
alliance between Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia.
These three traditional American allies have been
accustomed to Western support in regards to their own specific regional goals
and ambitions. This support has been so staunch and counterproductive to
regional stability that “the growing comfort” between Iran and the US should be
both confusing and worrisome to Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
On the one hand the US is making agreements with Iran
and lifting sanction while on the other hand it is indirectly supporting Saudi
Arabia’s and Turkey’s proxy war against Syria. A war which Iran, along with the
support of Russia and Hezbollah, are resisting and countering with massive
aerial and ground support.
This contradiction is suggestive of another and more
complex strategy which may be unfolding in the Middle East. A strategy
which is beginning to look familiar.
Back in 1990 when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait the state
of the Iraqi dictator’s mind was both paranoid and desperate. The once
American supported leader at some point felt he would have the blessings of the
US administration in his regional adventures. The controversy surrounding
US Ambassador April Glaspie’s comments to Saddam regarding having no interest
in Iraq’s border dispute with Kuwait, and her later vindication by the release
of a memo, is somewhat irrelevant as Saddam obviously felt the support was
there. Whether through direct and straightforward communication or
through trickery.
Once Iraq invaded Kuwait the Western press mobilized
and a massive propaganda campaign against Saddam Hussein commenced. The
once American ally was isolated on the world stage and suffered one of the
worst military defeats in the history of warfare.
The interesting parallels between 1990 Iraq and 2016
Saudi Arabia are unlikely to be coincidental. Both have militaries which
were built with American equipment and support. Both were used by
American interests to counter Iranian regional ambitions. Both supported
the sale of their domestically produced crude exports in US dollars.
In support of this conclusion we find the recent
statement of Iranian Armed Forces’ Chief of Staff Major General Hassan
Firouzabadi, who stated:
“US Defense Secretary [Ashton Carter] is supporting
and provoking the House of Saud to march to the war [in Syria]. This is an
indication that he is at a loss. It also proves beyond any doubt that
they have failed.”
Are we to assume that the US strategy in the Middle
East is at a standstill? I seriously doubt that and America’s agreements
with Iran would support something else being afoot. America may be
misleading Saudi Arabia down the same road as it led Saddam Hussein in the
buildup to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Except this time the aerial
bombardment will come from Russian forces and the mop up crew will consist of
Iranian and Hezbollah forces.
Further support for this conclusion comes from the
recent comments of John Kerry where he said “what do you want me to do, go
to war with the Russians?”
Why is there this disconnect and contradictory
approach within the American government? I seriously doubt that it is
caused by opposing factions within the US establishment. A potential war
of this magnitude will not be left to the whims of domestic bantering and
browbeating.
Saudi Arabia and Turkey are both pushed into a corner
over the shifting power base in the Middle East. The paranoia and
desperation, like Saddam in 1990, could very well cause both countries to
commit to the very act of aggression which will lead to their ultimate demise
and removal from a position of influence within the region.
Are we on the verge of another war?
Perhaps. But I still content that it will be a
regional war only and that the objective of that war will be the removal of
once American allies who have been funded and provided with the equipment which
will now have to be destroyed and removed from the region.
“There is a growing consensus that there may be a
division within the Saud family itself. This is the one thing that could
very well finally topple the monarchy. The House of Saud could be tearing
itself apart with opposing strategies.”
“One strategy is based on maintaining socioeconomic
and military control over the country, and working with other nations, such as
China, on developing business contracts which are not based on crude, but on
other sources of revenue which can be gained from alternative energy sources,
such as nuclear.”
“The other strategy involves a conclusion where the
Shiite majority which is building up around Saudi Arabia will eventually incite
revolution within the country as the conflict in Yemen spreads further across
the border, and deeper regional integration between the Shiite players takes
place.”
It is plausible that an overthrow of the House of Saud
would benefit the American strategy against China. The divisions within
Saudi Arabia make it ripe for such a strategy explained above. Especially
if there is a faction of the House of Saud which would be willing to take
control of what remains and fit within a larger Middle Eastern regional
alliance.
A negotiation with China regarding crude sales in
renminbi as discussed in the post The Petro-Renminbi Emerges, could very well be the macro-geopolitical and
macro-socioeconomic strategy which is unfolding here. Such an outcome
would benefit both China and Russia, while also maintaining a check on Iranian
regional ambitions.
To think that the US would enter into a major war
against Russia over Saudi Arabia is fraught with mindlessness and
madness. The more probable strategy is the overthrow of the House of
Saud, or at least a complete restructuring of the countries place within the
Middle East.
Will Saudi Arabia take the bait and invade
Syria? I think we may know that answer sooner rather than later. –
JC
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